Across Africa, the fight against terrorism and instability is no longer the sole responsibility of national armies; shadow forces have become key players in determining the fate of nations. Mercenaries and militias operate deep within conflict zones, wielding immense influence in shaping both chaos and order. From war-torn regions in Libya and Sudan to politically unstable zones in the Central African Republic, these forces serve dual roles as instigators of unrest and enforcers of security. They are the unseen architects of power, working behind the scenes to either fuel instability or reinforce state control.
Private military outfits provide a range of services to African states, including combat training, intelligence gathering, and logistical support. Some governments employ them to bolster their armies, while others rely on them to secure private investments such as mining operations and oil fields. Reports indicate that the use of private military companies (PMCs) in Africa has surged by over 60% in the past decade, underscoring their growing influence on the continent’s security landscape.
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This rise in private security forces coincides with an increase in global military spending. In 2023, world military expenditure reached a record-breaking $2.44 trillion, marking a 6.8% rise—the steepest year-on-year increase since 2009. Africa’s share of this spending stood at $51.6 billion, reflecting a 22% increase from 2022 and a 1.5% rise compared to 2014. These numbers highlight the growing militarisation of the continent, where both national armies and private security forces are playing increasingly significant roles in shaping security dynamics.
How Mercenaries Profit from Chaos
War is big business, and nowhere is this truer than in Africa. According to a report by the Centre for the Study of Violence and Reconciliation (CSVR), the global private security industry is worth over $200 billion, with a significant portion of that revenue flowing into conflict-ridden African states. A Business Research Insights report values the private security market at $247.75 billion in 2024, projected to reach $385.32 billion by 2032, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.7%.
In Libya, the Russian paramilitary group Wagner has provided direct combat support to various factions, altering the course of the civil war. The Wagner Group, also active in the Central African Republic (CAR) and Sudan, has been accused of human rights violations, including summary executions and forced labour, as documented by Amnesty International. A force of about 1,200 to 2,000 Wagner operatives, along with some 300 elite Rwandan troops, reportedly halted the Coalition of Patriots for Change (CPC) rebel army from capturing Bangui.
The extractive industries are a primary battleground for these shadow forces. Reports from Global Witness reveal that over 70% of conflicts in resource-rich African nations are linked to control over lucrative commodities such as gold, diamonds, and rare minerals. PMCs operating in Sierra Leone during the 1990s were instrumental in securing diamond mines, while in present-day Mozambique, mercenary groups have been hired to combat Islamist insurgents threatening the liquefied natural gas industry.
The Good Side of Shadow Forces: Security, Trade, and Political Protection
While often associated with instability, mercenaries and militias also play a crucial role in securing territories and stabilising fragile states. In several African countries, PMCs have successfully reinforced government forces, enabling them to counter insurgencies and restore order in volatile regions.
In Mozambique, private military firms were contracted to combat jihadist groups in Cabo Delgado, helping to reclaim key towns from insurgent control. Similarly, in Nigeria, mercenaries have been instrumental in the fight against Boko Haram, complementing the efforts of the national army. These shadow forces, although controversial, provide essential training and logistical support to government forces, strengthening their capacity to combat terrorism and organised crime.
Beyond security, these forces also protect vital trade routes, ensuring the safe transportation of goods and resources in areas prone to banditry and militancy. Some PMCs work alongside African governments to safeguard critical infrastructure, including mining sites and energy installations, fostering economic stability in regions that would otherwise be overrun by violence.
Moreover, in countries with fragile political systems, some militias and private forces have played a stabilising role, offering protection to politicians and high-ranking officials. In the Central African Republic, security firms have safeguarded government leaders against attempted coups, while in South Sudan, private security outfits have been used to protect foreign diplomats and investors.
State Power or Shadow Power?
Mercenaries and militias do not merely operate in the background; they often hold the levers of power. African politicians have increasingly relied on these forces to maintain control, sometimes at the expense of national sovereignty.
In the Central African Republic, Russian mercenaries have not only provided security services but have also shaped government policies. According to a UN report, military advisors linked to the Wagner Group have gained control over key government security structures, dictating the actions of the national army.
Similarly, in Sudan, paramilitary forces such as the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) have evolved from militias into political powerhouses. The RSF, which emerged from the notorious Janjaweed militia, has been involved in the country’s gold trade, amassing wealth and political influence. As the Sudanese crisis continues, the role of such groups in governance is a stark reminder of how shadow forces are redefining state authority.
Security or Instability?
While some argue that private military contractors provide much-needed stability in weak states, their presence often exacerbates conflict. The presence of foreign mercenaries can prolong wars, as seen in Libya, where external actors have prevented a decisive resolution to the ongoing strife.
Studies have found that in regions where PMCs operate, there is a 45% higher chance of prolonged conflict compared to those relying solely on national security forces. Moreover, human rights organisations, including Human Rights Watch, have raised alarms over the widespread abuses committed by these forces, from torture to civilian massacres.
Can the Shadow Forces Be Tamed?
The reliance on mercenaries and militias highlights deep-rooted structural weaknesses in African governance and security frameworks. If Africa is to curb the growing influence of these shadow forces, several measures must be considered. Strengthening national military institutions, enhancing regional cooperation, and enforcing stricter regulations on PMCs are essential steps.
The African Union has made some efforts in this regard, including the 1977 OAU Convention for the Elimination of Mercenarism in Africa. However, enforcement remains weak, and new strategies are required to tackle modern forms of private military influence.
Ultimately, Africa must decide whether to continue outsourcing its security to shadow forces or reclaim control over its destiny. The struggle is not merely about military power but about the sovereignty of nations and the future stability of the continent. As conflicts persist, one truth remains undeniable: those who control the guns often control the gold, the government, and the future of entire nations.
