As Africa strides towards a sustainable energy future, the continent faces a crucial decision: Should it invest more in hydropower or solar energy? Both sources hold immense potential yet differ in cost, efficiency, environmental impact, and scalability. With Africa’s energy demand expected to increase by over 60% by 2040, according to the International Energy Agency, determining the best path forward is imperative.
Globally, solar energy is leading the investment race. In 2024 alone, solar photovoltaics (PV) attracted over $500 billion in investments, surpassing all other electricity generation sources combined. Hydropower, despite its historical dominance, is witnessing a decline in new investments, with only $130 billion annually allocated for expansion.
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Solar energy’s installed capacity reached 1.5 terawatts (TW) in 2023, overtaking wind energy and closing in on hydropower’s 1.4 TW capacity. However, hydropower remains the largest source of renewable electricity, generating over 4,200 terawatt-hours (TWh) annually, while solar contributes approximately 1,300 TWh, according to the 2024 International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) report.
Efficiency-wise, hydropower surpasses solar with a capacity factor of 40-60%, compared to 15-25% for solar. This means hydropower plants generate electricity more consistently than solar farms, which rely on sunlight availability.
The African Context: Hydropower’s Legacy vs. Solar’s Disruption
Africa has long relied on hydropower, which accounts for nearly 70% of the continent’s renewable electricity (African Development Bank, 2023). The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), expected to generate 6.45 gigawatts (GW), exemplifies Africa’s hydropower ambitions. Similarly, Inga III in the Democratic Republic of the Congo has the potential to add another 11 GW to Africa’s grid.
Yet, hydropower faces significant challenges. Africa’s hydropower potential is heavily reliant on river systems like the Nile, Congo, and Zambezi, which are vulnerable to climate change-induced droughts. Countries such as Zambia and Zimbabwe experienced severe blackouts in 2019 and 2022 due to low water levels at the Kariba Dam.
Conversely, solar energy is rapidly gaining traction. Egypt, South Africa, and Morocco are spearheading large-scale solar projects, with Egypt’s Benban Solar Park (1.65 GW) ranking among the largest in the world. Africa’s solar potential is immense, with daily irradiation levels exceeding 5.5 kWh/m², making it one of the sunniest continents. In 2024, solar PV capacity in Africa surpassed 14 GW, a threefold increase since 2018.
Cost and Feasibility: Which Is More Practical for Africa?
Cost is a decisive factor. The levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) for solar PV dropped to $0.04/kWh in 2024, compared to $0.07/kWh for large-scale hydropower. This decline is driven by technological advancements and economies of scale, making solar more financially attractive.
Solar also offers flexibility. Unlike hydropower, which requires multi-billion-dollar infrastructure and long gestation periods, solar farms can be deployed quickly. For instance, Kenya’s Garissa Solar Plant (50 MW) was completed in less than two years, whereas large dams often take a decade or more.
However, hydropower provides energy storage and grid stability, which solar lacks. Hydropower’s ability to store excess energy in reservoirs makes it crucial for balancing Africa’s intermittent renewables, especially in regions with underdeveloped battery storage technology.
Environmental Considerations: Sustainability and Climate Impact
Environmental sustainability is a key concern. Hydropower projects often lead to deforestation, displacement of communities, and ecosystem disruption. The Merowe Dam in Sudan displaced over 50,000 people, and Ghana’s Akosombo Dam altered the Volta River ecosystem.
Solar, in contrast, has a lower ecological footprint. However, the production of solar panels relies on rare earth minerals like lithium and cobalt, raising concerns about unsustainable mining practices in countries such as the Democratic Republic of the Congo.
Africa’s Best Bet: A Balanced Approach
The verdict? Neither hydropower nor solar alone can power Africa’s green future. A hybrid approach is essential.
Solar should be the dominant energy source due to its declining costs, scalability, and abundance. Investments in decentralised solar mini-grids can rapidly expand access to electricity in rural areas.
Hydropower must play a complementary role, particularly for grid stability and energy storage. Future investments should focus on small and run-of-river hydropower projects, which minimise environmental and social impacts.
Energy storage and grid modernisation are critical. Expanding battery storage solutions and investing in grid infrastructure will maximise the benefits of solar energy and mitigate its intermittency.
Shaping Africa’s Renewable Energy Future
Africa stands at an energy crossroads. While hydropower has historically been the backbone of the continent’s renewable energy, solar is emerging as the more cost-effective and scalable solution. A strategic blend of solar dominance and hydropower stability, supported by investments in battery storage and transmission infrastructure, will be the most viable path towards a sustainable and resilient green future.
As the sun rises on Africa’s energy revolution, it is clear that solar energy, with the right policies and investments, will lead the continent’s transition towards a cleaner, more prosperous future.
