Terrorism remains a grave threat to global security, with its effects unevenly distributed across regions. According to the Global Terrorism Index 2024, terrorism-related deaths rose by 22% to 8,352, the highest figure since 2017. Significantly, the epicentre of terrorism has shifted from the Middle East to the Central Sahel in sub-Saharan Africa, now accounting for more than half of all such fatalities.
In Africa, the Lake Chad Basin, East Africa, and the Horn have borne the brunt of this violence. The Lake Chad Basin, spanning parts of Nigeria, Niger, Chad and Cameroon—has long been a hotspot for terrorist activities led by Boko Haram and its offshoots. Encouragingly, recent data suggests a decline in incidents. Nigeria and Niger, for instance, ranked 8th and 10th respectively in the Global Terrorism Index 2024, reflecting a drop in attacks.
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In August 2024, the Multinational Joint Task Force (MNJTF), comprising troops from Benin, Cameroon, Chad, Niger and Nigeria, launched Operation Lake Sanity II. The offensive significantly weakened Boko Haram’s operational capacity in the region. The African Union commended the MNJTF for its adherence to international humanitarian law throughout the campaign.
Yet, challenges endure. In November 2024, Chad’s interim president, Mahamat Idriss Déby, threatened to withdraw from the MNJTF, criticising its lack of cohesion and effectiveness. This announcement followed an assault that claimed the lives of around 40 Chadian soldiers.
East Africa: Emerging Threats and Countermeasures
East Africa has seen a marked uptick in terrorist activity, particularly from Al-Shabaab in Somalia and surrounding countries. The region’s porous borders and political instability have enabled extremist ideologies to proliferate.
In September 2024, Egypt’s arms shipment to Somalia sparked concern in Ethiopia. While Cairo insisted the weapons were intended to bolster Somalia’s fight against terrorism, Addis Ababa feared the move could destabilise the region further. The episode underscored the geopolitical complexity surrounding foreign involvement in Africa’s counterterrorism efforts.
The Horn of Africa: A Volatile Frontier
The Horn of Africa continues to face complex security challenges. Local insurgencies, international interventions and geopolitical rivalries intersect to complicate counterterrorism strategies.
Following its expulsion from Niger, the United States repositioned troops to coastal West Africa in response to rising threats from al-Qaeda and Islamic State affiliates. This strategic recalibration involved refurbishing an airfield in Benin, deploying Green Berets to Ivory Coast and initiating base negotiations with Chad. These measures highlight the evolving nature of regional counterterrorism operations.
Successes and Failures
Africa’s counterterrorism landscape reflects a mix of progress and persistent obstacles. Initiatives such as the MNJTF illustrate the potential of joint regional efforts to degrade terrorist networks. External support—especially from the U.S.—has strengthened local capacity.
However, political instability, as seen in Chad’s threat to leave the MNJTF, weakens cohesion. Limited resources further constrain military effectiveness and intelligence efforts. Moreover, operations that sideline human rights risk alienating communities and inadvertently driving extremist recruitment.
Transforming Failures into Successes
To turn current shortcomings into long-term gains, African nations must adopt holistic strategies that tackle root causes and scale effective solutions. Key priorities include:
Enhancing Regional Cooperation:
The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) launched its 2020–2024 Priority Action Plan to Eradicate Terrorism to coordinate regional initiatives and improve intelligence sharing. However, the plan has struggled due to funding shortfalls and internal political divisions. For greater efficacy, ECOWAS members must place collective security above national agendas and ensure that pledged resources are channelled into joint efforts.
Securing Sustainable Funding:
The failure to meet the $2.3 billion funding target for the ECOWAS plan reveals a need for innovative financing. Options such as public–private partnerships, regional security levies and donor support should be explored. Transparency in fund management will be crucial to gaining public trust and ensuring accountability.
Strengthening Governance and Addressing Instability:
Military juntas in Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger have failed to stem extremist violence. In the first half of 2024, these countries recorded 7,620 deaths from extremist attacks—a staggering 190% increase compared to the same period in 2021. Reinstating democratic governance, promoting the rule of law and enforcing military accountability will be critical to restoring stability.
Engaging Local Communities:
Heavy-handed responses have at times estranged local populations, creating fertile ground for extremism. Community policing, economic empowerment initiatives and strict adherence to human rights can help bridge the trust gap between security forces and citizens, making it more difficult for extremist groups to gain traction.
Learning from Effective Models:
Morocco’s dismantling of an Islamic State cell in March 2024 underscored the value of strong intelligence and inter-agency cooperation. Authorities arrested 13 suspects and seized weapons and explosives. Such operations serve as models for effective, rights-compliant counterterrorism.
Africa’s fight against terrorism has yielded important gains—particularly through regional cooperation and international backing. Yet, persistent issues including political instability, financial limitations and human rights concerns continue to hamper progress. A comprehensive, long-term strategy that addresses these intersecting challenges is essential for achieving lasting peace and security on the continent.
