Africa has long been considered the world’s youngest continent, with over 60% of its population under 25 years old. This youthful exuberance has shaped economic policies, labour force projections, and development narratives. However, beneath the surface, a slow but undeniable shift is taking place. Africa’s ageing population is on the rise, and the continent must brace itself for the implications of this transformation.
The United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs estimates that Africa’s population aged 60 and above will rise from 74.4 million in 2020 to approximately 225 million by 2050—an almost 200% increase in just three decades. The World Health Organisation (WHO) also projects that by 2050, one in five Africans will be aged 60 or older, marking a significant departure from the current demographic structure.
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The elderly population in sub-Saharan Africa was estimated at 43 million in 2010 and is projected to reach 67 million by 2025 and 163 million by 2050. However, Africa remains exceptionally young compared to other world regions that have been ageing at a faster rate; only 5.6% of Africa’s population was aged 60 or older in 2020.
Ageing is not an isolated phenomenon but rather a product of increasing life expectancy and declining fertility rates. Life expectancy in Africa has increased from an average of 50 years in the 1990s to about 64 years today, according to the World Bank. Advances in healthcare, improved maternal care, better disease control, and increased urbanisation have all contributed to this shift.
At the same time, fertility rates have seen a steady decline. The average number of births per woman in sub-Saharan Africa has dropped from 6.8 in the 1980s to 4.6 in 2023, based on World Bank data. Countries such as South Africa, Kenya, and Ghana are already experiencing the effects of this dual trend—rising life expectancy coupled with decreasing birth rates—gradually reshaping the population pyramid into a more cylindrical form.
The shift is even more pronounced in North African nations like Tunisia, Algeria, and Egypt, where fertility rates have plummeted to near replacement levels of about 2.1 births per woman. Egypt alone is projected to have over 16 million people aged 60 and above by 2050, according to UN data.
Will Africa’s Workforce Sustain the Ageing Population?
Africa has long benefitted from a demographic dividend, with a growing labour force supporting a relatively small dependent population. However, as the elderly population increases, this advantage could dissipate. Currently, about 6% of Africa’s population is over 60. By 2050, this figure will double. The critical question is: can Africa’s workforce sustain an increasing elderly population without adequate social security and pension structures?
A report by the International Labour Organisation (ILO) states that only 17% of Africans aged 60 and above currently receive a pension, compared to over 90% in Europe. Without robust pension systems, many elderly Africans will remain economically vulnerable, relying on informal family support networks that are already under strain due to urbanisation and changing social dynamics.
The Erosion of Traditional Support Systems
Historically, African societies have operated on strong intergenerational family structures, where the elderly were cared for within extended families. However, rapid urbanisation and economic migration have weakened these safety nets. Today, more young Africans live in cities than ever before. The urban population in Africa is expected to reach 1.34 billion by 2050, according to UN-Habitat. This mass movement has resulted in a growing number of elderly people living alone, abandoned, or in need of institutional care, which remains underdeveloped across much of the continent.
If this trend continues, Africa will face a crisis of elderly neglect, where millions of ageing individuals struggle without adequate family or government support. Unlike Western nations, where retirement homes and state-assisted elderly care are common, Africa still lacks a structured response to this growing issue.
Preparing for a Grey Future
The implications of an ageing Africa are clear: economic, healthcare, and social structures must adapt. Countries that fail to prepare for this demographic shift risk overburdening their economies, increasing poverty among the elderly, and straining already fragile healthcare systems.
One urgent priority is the establishment of universal pension schemes. Rwanda has pioneered a contributory pension system that provides a model for other nations. Nigeria’s National Pension Commission (PenCom) has also made strides in pension reforms, increasing coverage through micro-pension schemes for informal sector workers. However, these efforts need to be expanded across the continent.
Healthcare infrastructure must also be reconfigured to accommodate ageing-related illnesses. The prevalence of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) such as hypertension, diabetes, and dementia among Africa’s elderly is rising. WHO reports that NCDs will account for nearly 50% of Africa’s disease burden by 2030. Countries must, therefore, invest in geriatric healthcare training, specialised hospitals, and home-care services.
Finally, Africa must redefine its workforce policies. As populations age, developed countries have implemented policies encouraging older adults to remain active in the workforce. Japan, for example, has increased the retirement age to 70, and similar reforms could be considered in Africa to maximise human capital utilisation.
What Happens If Africa Fails to Prepare?
If Africa ignores this looming demographic transition, the consequences will be severe. The lack of a structured elderly care system will lead to increased elderly poverty, exacerbating the burden on younger generations. Without pension schemes, millions will have to work far into old age, despite declining health and productivity. Healthcare systems will become overwhelmed, and governments will be forced to redirect resources from other critical sectors, stunting overall economic growth.
Moreover, if Africa fails to invest in geriatric healthcare, life expectancy improvements could stagnate, reversing years of progress. The rapid growth of elderly populations without corresponding support structures could lead to social instability as economic inequalities between the young and old deepen.
A Call to Action
The clock is ticking, and Africa’s leaders must act now. Policies must be crafted not only with a long-term vision but also with the immediacy this demographic transition demands. Investment in healthcare, pension schemes, elderly social services, and workforce participation models must become a top priority.
Africa is still in a position to harness the benefits of its demographic dividend, but that window is closing. Preparing for an ageing population today ensures that tomorrow’s elderly do not become an economic burden but rather an empowered and supported segment of society.
The storm is gathering, but with the right policies, Africa can weather it and emerge stronger, proving once again that demographic challenges, when met with strategic foresight, can be transformed into opportunities.
